Russian treasury expenditures are rapidly outpacing revenues despite rising tax collections
During January–September 2026, the federal budget deficit of the russian federation reached 61.08 billion USD, accounting for 2.2% of GDP. This figure exceeds the total annual deficit planned for the year by 37%. This is reported by the portal PromPolitInform, citing information from Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.
According to the results of the first three quarters of the current year, the fiscal balance of the russian federation shows a negative trend compared to initial budget projections. In absolute terms, the failure to meet revenue targets and the surge in spending have led to a shortfall of 5.186 trillion rubles.
Forecast revised for the worse
In September, the Ministry of Finance of the russian federation was forced to officially revise its annual outlook. The updated forecast projects the annual deficit to rise to 86.51 billion USD, or 3.2% of GDP, up from the initially planned 1.6%.
Data reveals uneven growth patterns within the budget structure. Total spending for the nine-month period increased by 14.5% to 410.19 billion USD, while revenues grew by only 10%, reaching 349.10 billion USD.
Decline in energy sector revenues
The most significant blow to budget revenue came from a 17.2% drop in oil and gas sector receipts, which totaled 64.44 billion USD. Despite an 18.8% increase in non-oil and gas revenues and a 27.4% rise in VAT collections, these funds were insufficient to cover the overall fiscal gap.
The persistent disparity between inflows and outflows forces the government of the russian federation to exhaust its accumulated reserves. Pursuing this trajectory poses risks to financial stability as the options for covering the deficit through internal budget accounts are gradually tightening.
In the near future, the russian leadership will have to choose between further increasing the tax burden, aggressively expanding debt obligations, or drastically cutting budget spending.
Illustrative photo: Ministry of Finance of India / GODL-India
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