The gap between Moscow's claims and the actual situation exceeds 5,000 km²
French OSINT analyst Clement Molin stated that Russian maps display a significantly larger zone of control for the Russian army than actually exists. According to him, such discrepancies could complicate negotiations on ending the war and create grounds for accusing Ukraine of violating a potential truce. This was reported by Glavcom, according to the portal PromPolitInform.
According to French OSINT analyst Clement Molin, Russian maps significantly exaggerate the area of captured Ukrainian territories compared to the actual control exercised by the Russian army. The expert compared Russian data with information from the DeepState project and recorded a discrepancy exceeding 5,000 km².
Among the settlements where Moscow’s claims do not match the situation on the ground are Kupiansk, Lyman, Kostiantynivka, Dobropillia, and Orikhiv. In particular, Head of the Office of the President Kyrylo Budanov previously refuted Russian claims about the alleged capture of Dobropillia in Donetsk Region, confirming that the town remains under Ukrainian control.
Implications for negotiations and truce
Molin believes that during future agreements, the Russian side may demand the recognition of a fictitious line of control instead of actual troop deployments. Furthermore, if Russian positions on maps are drawn 10–15 km ahead of real ones, Moscow will get a pretext to accuse the Ukrainian military of shelling and disrupt the ceasefire.
The analyst suggests that such discrepancies could be used as an instrument of pressure or for domestic propaganda. At the same time, Ukraine has repeatedly proposed a ceasefire along the current frontline, whereas the Russian leadership continues combat operations.
Kyiv’s position and the Kremlin’s plans
The Russian leadership may prolong the war as long as Vladimir Putin hopes to achieve a military victory. Meanwhile, the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from sovereign Ukrainian territory is not an acceptable way to end the war for Kyiv.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has also repeatedly drawn attention to the lack of evidence regarding certain claims made by the Russian Ministry of Defence concerning the capture of Ukrainian territories. The issue of the actual frontline will remain crucial for any future peace agreements.
Photo: Glavcom
Read also: Analyst Clement Molin alleges Russian data manipulation regarding occupation size
