Ukraine is forecasting a new rise in the price of goods and services – by the end of 2026, inflation may rise to almost 10%, and this will hit products, utilities and imported goods the hardest. At the same time, it is expected that Ukrainian salaries will continue to grow due to a shortage of workers, and the economy will gradually return to recovery after a difficult winter.
This, OBOZ.UA reports, was reported by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU). The PromPolitInform portal reports.
According to the report, the economy continues to be pressured by war, energy risks and labor shortages.
The situation on the labor market is gradually changing. The NBU says that the shortage of personnel remains a serious problem, especially among blue-collar professions. Because of this, employers are forced to compete for workers and raise salaries. Salaries are growing especially actively in areas where there is a shortage of personnel, as well as in the public sector – after revising the minimum wage and increasing payments to certain categories of employees, in particular, educators.
On average, real salaries of Ukrainians, that is, taking into account inflation, may increase by almost 12% in 2026. In the following years, growth rates are forecast at 6-7% annually. Interestingly, in the first quarter of 2026, more people even returned to Ukraine than left abroad. Because of this, the number of resumes on job search sites began to grow faster than the number of vacancies.
At the same time, the NBU warns that inflation in Ukraine is accelerating again. If in 2025 the rate of price increases slowed down, now prices have gone up again. The main reasons are the energy sector shocks, the rise in the price of gas, oil and electricity, as well as the increase in business expenses for salaries and logistics.
In April 2026, goods and services in Ukraine were already 8.6% more expensive than a year ago. By the end of the year, inflation may accelerate to 9.4%. This may affect the following most:
food;
utility costs;
transport costs;
prices for services;
imported goods and equipment.
However, the National Bank predicts that the situation will gradually begin to stabilize from 2027. Inflation may decrease to 6.5%, and in 2028 return to the target level of 5%.
Separately, the NBU emphasized that they will continue to restrain sharp fluctuations in the hryvnia exchange rate. That is why the regulator is still keeping the discount rate at 15%. Ukrainians are advised to pay attention to hryvnia deposits and government bonds, which currently yield 13-17% per annum. The National Bank believes that such instruments still cover the forecasted inflation and allow to protect savings.
