The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has raised the discount rate for the first time since March 2025 – by 0.5 percentage points, from 15% to 15.5%. Thus, the NBU is trying to fight inflation and keep the hryvnia exchange rate stable. As noted in the banking sector, the decision actually came as a surprise to the market. It will lead to the fact that interest rates on hryvnia deposits may increase by a similar 0.5 percentage points. Lending rates, however, may increase disproportionately to the change in “accounting”.
Banks plan to revise rates gradually – by the end of the summer. This was told in an exclusive comment to OBOZ.UA by the director of the retail business department of Globu Bank, Dmytro Zamotayev. The PromPolitInform portal reports.
“The foreign exchange and financial markets were generally ready for a conservative scenario – maintaining the discount rate at 15%. However, the National Bank decided to act, so to speak, in advance, without waiting for possible negative manifestations in the economy and increased inflationary risks. Raising the rate to 15.5% can be considered a preventive step designed to strengthen monetary stability and contain a possible increase in price pressure,” he noted.
The decision on the new discount rate level will come into effect on July 31, the NBU press service reports. At the same time, the regulator warned that it is ready to further increase the rate if there are prerequisites for this – in particular, inflationary ones.
“The increase in the discount rate is aimed at maintaining the attractiveness of hryvnia assets, the stability of the foreign exchange market and the controllability of inflation expectations, which will allow us to return inflation to the deceleration trajectory to the 5% target in 2027. The NBU is ready to continue using monetary tools, in particular, to further strengthen interest rate policy to contain price pressure,” the regulator said.
What will change the increase in the discount rate: a banker’s explanation
Dollar exchange rate
According to Zamotayev, the increase in the discount rate should have a positive effect on the strength of the hryvnia. This forecast coincides with the stated goals of the National Bank itself.
“The increase in the yield of hryvnia instruments increases citizens’ interest in savings in the national currency, can curb excessive demand for dollars and euros, and will contribute to exchange rate stability. The NBU’s decision is not only a signal for the deposit and credit markets, but also an additional safeguard against inflationary and currency fluctuations,” the banker notes.
Interest rates on deposits
By the end of summer, Zamotayev predicts, banks may gradually revise their interest rate policy. He notes that in this case, closer to September, the profitability of hryvnia deposits will increase somewhat.
“Deposit rates may react to a change in the discount rate almost “mirrorwise” (i.e., about 0.5 pp – Ed.). First of all, this may apply to deposits with a term of three to six months. At the same time, the changes will not be instantaneous and the same in all banks: much will depend on the institutions’ need to attract funds and the level of competition for depositors,” the specialist explained.
Interest rates on loans
According to the banker, interest rates on loans may also gradually increase. However, their increase may not reach 0.5 pp.
“Credit rates are unlikely to change strictly proportionally to the discount rate. After all, they depend not only on the monetary policy of the NBU, but also on the cost of bank resources, the level of risks and the conditions of specific programs,” the expert is confident.
As reported, bank deposits of the population continue to grow in Ukraine – in the first half of 2026 alone, this amount increased by 8% and exceeded UAH 1.75 trillion, which became a new historical record. But deposits are distributed unevenly – the 1% of the richest clients account for more than 50% of all savings of the population.
