Underlying inflation indicators in September ranged between 5% and 6%
Annual inflation in Russia has exceeded 7% following the latest increase in utility tariffs, requiring carefully calibrated decisions on the key interest rate. This was reported by The Moscow Times citing Reuters, according to the portal PromPolitInform.
Underlying inflation indicators in September were in the range of 5–6%. This metric is more heavily influenced by demand, which is driven by a strong fiscal stimulus and a revival in lending, while one-off factors play a lesser role.
Economic growth and infrastructure attacks
Russia’s economic growth in the third quarter of 2026 continued at a moderate pace despite the loss of production capacities. During this period, oil refineries and marketplace warehouses were subjected to drone attacks, while the regulator had counted on their restoration by the end of 2026.
Following the rate-setting meeting scheduled for October 23, the central bank intends to refine its current assessments. A significant slowdown in current price growth within the sustained component is necessary to resume disinflationary processes.
Objectives for price stabilization
For a sustained slowdown in consumer price growth and the return of inflation to the 4% target by 2027, calibrated decisions regarding the future trajectory of the key rate are required. As the regulator’s analysts noted in the review «What Trends Are Saying», following the utility tariff increase on October 1, inflation surpassed 7 percent.
Illustrative photo: Юрий Д.К. / CC BY 4.0
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