Potential Russian diesel supplies could bring billions in revenue
US President Donald Trump seeks to demonstrate to voters that he is taking measures to lower fuel prices, but potential supplies of Russian diesel are unlikely to yield tangible results, according to Energy Policy Research Foundation quantitative research director Matthew Savoski. This was reported by Ukrinform, according to the portal PromPolitInform.
The analyst characterized the move as a purely political decision intended to project an image of decisive action regarding fuel costs regardless of actual outcomes. According to him, the primary goal is simply to make people see that the administration is attempting to address the issue.
Russian Export Limitations and Refinery Strikes
Russia already exports virtually all of its domestically produced diesel, meaning a substantial increase in shipments would require approximately doubling export infrastructure capacity. At the same time, Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries continue to complicate any potential manufacturing growth.
The expert noted that Russia will likely fail to supply significant additional volumes to the US market, instead merely redirecting existing shipments from countries such as Brazil and Turkey. This redirection would entail extra transportation expenses at a time when the United States is itself a diesel exporter.
Market Impact and Military Funding Implications
Even under an optimistic scenario, increased Russian supplies could cover only about 8 percent of the global diesel deficit in October and November. The potential price relief for American consumers would remain minimal at around 20 cents against a prior increase of roughly $2.80.
Simultaneously, the prospective deal could generate nearly $7 billion in additional revenues for Russia, with about $500 million potentially reaching the Russian military budget. This amount roughly equates to the cost of one day of war against Ukraine or approximately 14,000 Shahed-type drones.
Photo: Метью Савоскі
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