U.S. oil futures after the biggest weekly gain in history rose as much as 20% in Sunday evening trading, topping $100 a barrel for the first time since the war in Europe that shook energy markets in 2022. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for a long time, it is possible to reach an all-time high adjusted for inflation – about $215. per barrel.
This was reported by the Wall Street Journal, informs the portal PromPolitInform.
We are talking about futures for American benchmark oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI). In just over five trading sessions, the price of a barrel rose by more than $40, an unprecedented jump for this market. Against the background of such dynamics, analysts have already begun to talk about the possibility of a return to historical highs.
The nominal record for WTI futures is $145.29 per barrel – it was set on July 3, 2008 during the global energy crisis associated with the rapid growth in demand for oil. However, the current pace of price growth makes this figure much closer than a few weeks ago.
Experts also emphasize that if we take into account inflation, the historical maximum of oil prices is much higher – about $215 per barrel in modern prices. Such a scenario could become a reality in the event of serious interruptions in the supply of oil to the world market.
The key risk factor remains the situation around the Strait of Hormuz – a strategic sea corridor between Iran and Oman, through which a significant part of the world’s oil exports from the Middle East pass. Every day, about a fifth of the global marine oil supply is transported through this strait. Any disruption to shipping or restrictions on transit could drastically reduce supply in global markets.
That is why investors are closely watching the development of the situation in the Middle East region. Fears of a possible restriction of oil supplies from the region are pushing traders to actively purchase futures, which further accelerates prices.
The rising cost of oil is already beginning to be reflected in other segments of the energy market. More expensive gasoline and diesel, as well as rising costs of transportation and production, which can increase inflationary pressure in many countries.
Analysts note that further price dynamics will largely depend on two factors: the stability of supplies from the Middle East and the decisions of leading producers to increase production.
Recall that the price of gas in Europe jumped to more than $800 per 1 thousand cubic meters. This is evidenced by the trading data on Monday, March 9.
So, the April futures on the TTF index (Europe’s largest hub located in the Netherlands) reached almost $835. This is the highest figure since January 2023. The price increase compared to the end of February was 115%.
Photo – from open sources
