US initiative could protect Russian oil refineries while leaving Ukrainian power plants vulnerable
As of October 12, no official agreement on halting energy strikes had been concluded between Ukraine and Russia. Despite discussions of a potential truce, Russian forces continued attacking Ukrainian power generation and gas production facilities. This was reported by RBC-Ukraine (Марія Науменко) citing ISW, according to the portal PromPolitInform.
On the night of October 12, hits were recorded at a thermal power plant west of Kharkiv, gas production facilities in Kharkiv region, and an oil depot in Sarny, Rivne region. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that the invaders carried out strikes on six Ukrainian energy facilities during the day. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces did not launch any strikes on Russian energy infrastructure during this period.
Details of the US proposal
A White House representative explained in a comment to Axios that US leader Donald Trump’s statement referred only to a potential arrangement. The initial phase of the proposal involves a moratorium exclusively on strikes against oil refineries. Later, this list of facilities could be expanded to protect the rest of the energy grid.
Risks for Ukraine’s energy grid
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War consider this limited format disadvantageous for Ukraine. The Russian Federation possesses numerous oil refineries, whereas only one such enterprise operates on Ukrainian territory. Consequently, restrictions on strikes against refineries will significantly reduce Ukraine’s retaliatory capabilities without stopping attacks on Ukrainian power plants.
Winter threats
According to analyst conclusions, such conditions will allow Russia to continue destroying Ukraine’s energy system throughout the 2026–2027 heating season. Kyiv states its readiness for a full-scale ceasefire in the energy sector provided there are mirror actions from Moscow and official agreements are signed.
Illustrative photo: Don Komarechka from Barrie, Ontario, Canada / CC0
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