The government must unite budgetary resources to protect the country's production base
To restart Ukraine's wartime economy, it is proposed to allocate 50 billion hryvnias for energy resilience, risk guarantees, and personnel training. This is stated in the analytical review of the macroeconomic situation as of mid-October 2026. This was reported by RBC-Ukraine (Богдан Данилишин), according to the portal PromPolitInform.
Ukraine’s real GDP grew by only 0.2% over January-August, while industrial production decreased by 1%. At the same time, retail turnover increased by 8.8%, and the merchandise trade deficit reached 46.3 billion dollars due to an increase in goods imports by 26.9% and a decrease in exports by 0.1%.
Energy Resilience as an Economic Priority
According to the joint assessment by the Government of Ukraine, the World Bank, the European Commission, and the UN RDNA5, recovery needs at the end of 2025 amounted to nearly 588 billion dollars over ten years. Of this, about 91 billion dollars falls exclusively on the energy sector. By the end of September, banks had already started financing business and household energy projects for a total of 68.7 billion hryvnias.
The EBRD, the EU, and Aon are expanding the URGF war risk insurance mechanism from 110 million euros to 150 million euros, specifically for assets related to gas. A separate EBRD pilot with PrivatBank and Raiffeisen Bank with initial allocations of 8 million euros provides for partial debt relief in the event of confirmed war damage to assets.
Budgetary Financing and Credit Risks
At the end of August, state and state-guaranteed debt stood at 9.6 trillion hryvnias with a weighted average domestic government debt rate of 13.2% and external debt at 1.95%. A one percentage point reduction in the rate for one trillion hryvnias of new or refinanced debt yields about 10 billion hryvnias in savings for a full year.
The starting proposal for a 50 billion hryvnia production support package over twelve months is proposed to be distributed across several areas. In particular, 20 billion is provided for the energy resilience of enterprises and communities, 15 billion for limited coverage of investment risks, 10 billion for co-financing modernization, and 5 billion for personnel training.
Illustrative photo: Ввласенко / CC BY-SA 3.0
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