Only a fraction of refugees may return to Ukraine after the war.
According to UN estimates, between 3 and 3.5 million citizens who fled abroad may return to Ukraine after the end of the full-scale war. Bernadette Castel-Hollingsworth, representative of the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees in Ukraine, announced this at a briefing, UNIAN reports. PromPolitInform reports.
The forecast is based on a special UNHCR model that takes into account return routes, the social composition of refugees, and the conditions for their successful reintegration. According to Castel-Hollingsworth, prolonging the war reduces the willingness of people to return, both from abroad and among internally displaced persons (IDPs).
The longer people live in their host countries, the less likely they are to return, the UN representative emphasized. Data shows a clear decline in willingness to return: while 61% of Ukrainian refugees wanted to return in July 2024, by December 2025, only 49% did. Among IDPs, the figure dropped from 73% to 35%.
During the war, approximately 4.3 million Ukrainians received temporary protection in other countries. Modeling shows that only a fraction of them will return home. The most likely to return are the elderly, single citizens, and single mothers.
Furthermore, achieving peace with territorial or political compromises on Ukraine’s part could further reduce the number of those willing to return.
Separately, the UN drew attention to changes in the rules governing Ukrainian residency in the EU: after March 4, 2027, the temporary protection mechanism will cease to apply, and automatic residency will be lost. Citizens will have to obtain residence permits in accordance with the laws of each individual country.
