The US dollar exchange rate is expected within 44.7–45.1 UAH in the first ten days of the month
In early October, Ukraine's currency market will remain stable despite the impact of the war and budget expenditures. Taras Lesovyi, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Department at Globus Bank, forecasts moderate fluctuations without sharp spikes. This was reported by RBC-Ukraine (Анастасія Мацепа), according to the portal PromPolitInform.
During the first ten days of the month, US dollar quotations on the interbank market will range between 44.7 and 45.1 UAH, while the European currency will cost 50.5 to 52 UAH. Daily figures will depend on the balance of supply and demand, the state of the information field, and the behavior of market participants, with the amplitude of movements remaining controlled.
Interbank support mechanisms
The main instrument for containing risks remains the sale of foreign currency by the regulator on the interbank segment. The market’s own supply volumes are insufficient to cover buyers’ needs, so the National Bank regularly covers this deficit. Such interventions prevent the accumulation of imbalances that could increase pressure on exchange rates.
Market participants demonstrate balanced expectations, and speculative demand is currently absent. Market behavior is based on the understanding of the central bank’s readiness to intervene promptly to smooth out imbalances.
Situation in the cash segment
A similar situation is observed in the cash sector, where financial institutions and exchange offices do not experience a shortage of cash. A mass transition of citizens’ savings from hryvnia to foreign assets has not been recorded, so the cash segment predominantly mirrors the general interbank trend.
«Daily changes on the interbank market can reach up to 0.05–0.15 UAH, in commercial banks up to 0.1–0.2 UAH, and in exchange offices up to 0.3 UAH», – noted Taras Lesovyi.
Economic risks and inflation
At the same time, the macroeconomic environment contains a number of challenges, in particular the destruction of warehouse facilities and production infrastructure as a result of strikes. A separate pressure factor is the rise in fuel prices, which affects business logistics and product transportation costs.
An additional pillar for the national currency is the recent increase in the discount rate to 16%. High yields on hryvnia instruments, including term deposits and government bonds, provide citizens with an attractive alternative to purchasing foreign currency.
Illustrative photo: LION DIOR 2008 MEN / CC0
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