Ukraine's trade deficit reached 39.7 billion dollars in the first eight months of the year
The National Bank of Ukraine set the official dollar exchange rate at 44.68 UAH and the euro at 50.71 UAH for October 1. The dollar rate decreased by 18 kopecks, while the euro rate fell by 21 kopecks. This was reported by RBC-Ukraine (Анастасія Мацепа), according to the portal PromPolitInform.
The regulator revised the value of foreign currencies after the previous trading day, when the dollar was priced at 44.86 UAH and the euro at 50.92 UAH. These changes were made within the framework of the central bank’s current exchange rate policy.
Factors of pressure on the currency market
The market situation remains dependent on the imbalance between import and export volumes. As noted by Taras Lesovyi, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Department at Globus Bank, during the period from January to August 2026, the country imported goods worth 66.3 billion dollars, while export figures amounted to only 26.6 billion dollars.
Such a substantial trade deficit, which reached 39.7 billion dollars, creates a constant demand for foreign currency that exceeds the supply from exporters. Under wartime conditions, the economy shows high dependence on foreign supplies.
Expectations for October
The expert forecasts a likely increase in the imbalance during October, attributed to the seasonal rise in imports. Businesses are actively preparing for the end of the calendar year by purchasing goods and components, in addition to the needs for energy resources.
An additional risk is the potential fluctuation of fuel and energy prices on global markets. Even with stable import volumes of energy resources, an increase in global quotes automatically raises the cost of purchases for Ukraine.
At the same time, export potential remains restrained. Industrial sectors are working under the pressure of logistical limitations, physical damage from rf attacks, and other military risks, which limits the inflow of foreign currency revenue into the country.
Illustrative photo: RBC-Україна
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