Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Kremlin believed that only 10% of Ukrainians would resist the war. This was reported by The Guardian, according to Fakty, citing numerous interviews with former and current officials, including intelligence officers. PromPolitInform reports.
The Kremlin’s Expectations Regarding Ukrainian Resistance to War
The article notes that a serious psychological barrier for some European intelligence agencies was the belief that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin acts primarily rationally.
Therefore, they were skeptical about the likelihood of his plan, which they believed would likely fail, being implemented.
According to Russian estimates obtained and compiled by Western intelligence agencies, Moscow believed that only 10% of Ukrainians would resist the invasion, while the rest would either actively support or reluctantly accept Russian occupation. This assessment was overly optimistic, but even 10% of Ukraine’s population represents approximately 4 million people.
European experts believed that the forces assembled by Russia were clearly insufficient to combat such resistance.
The article also states that Putin decided on a full-scale invasion in the first half of 2020.
According to the results of the all-Ukrainian Omnibus public opinion poll conducted by KIIS, approximately 63% of Ukrainians believe they are prepared to tolerate a full-scale war for as long as necessary.
A survey by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation indicates that 76% of Ukrainians surveyed oppose recognizing the occupied territories as part of the Russian Federation.
