An escalation of the war in the Middle East could trigger the biggest oil market crisis in decades. If a quick resolution isn’t forthcoming, oil prices will rise sharply after trading opens on Monday, Reuters reports. This was reported by UA.NEWS and PromPolitInform.
Analysts note that the scale of supply disruptions will depend on the duration of the conflict. However, the risks are already sufficient to significantly impact the region, which accounts for approximately 20% of global oil supplies. In recent weeks, Brent prices have risen to approximately $70 per barrel, the highest level since August 2025.
The agency reports that OPEC+ will consider increasing production on Sunday after the US-Israeli war against Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory actions led to disruptions in the Middle East. According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia has been increasing production and exports in recent weeks in preparation for US strikes on Iran.
Shipping of oil, gas, and other commodities through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively ceased after shipowners received a warning from Iran that the area would be closed to shipping. Around 20 million barrels of oil are transported through the strait daily, accounting for approximately one-fifth of global demand.
The OPEC+ meeting may discuss increasing production by 411,000 barrels per day or more—significantly exceeding previous expectations of 137,000 barrels.
Analysts warn that further escalation could push prices above $100 per barrel. However, the impact of potential OPEC production increases will be limited by a lack of spare capacity outside Saudi Arabia.
Gulf stock markets have already responded with a decline. In Saudi Arabia, the TASI index fell 4.6% in early trading, its biggest intraday drop since April. Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco shares rose 2.3%. The Muscat index pared its losses to 1.5% after falling more than 3%, the Bahrain index fell 0.6%, and the Qatar exchange was closed due to a bank holiday.
The US is not yet considering releasing oil from the Strategic Reserve. According to the Financial Times, the Department of Energy stated that no discussions regarding the use of the SPR have taken place. The US Strategic Reserve currently holds approximately 415 million barrels of oil.
US oil prices are expected to rise after the New York market opens amid trader concerns about potential energy supply disruptions.
Recall that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced the launch of an offensive operation against Israel and US military bases. As a reminder, US President Donald Trump responded to Iran’s claims of a “retaliatory strike.”
The day before, US President Donald Trump stated that the US and Israeli strikes on Iran were effective. They could pave the way for a diplomatic settlement.
As a reminder, US President Donald Trump, on his own social media account, Truth Social, confirmed the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei following joint US-Israeli strikes.
As a reminder, several Western agencies reported that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s body was found in the rubble of his residence.
The Israeli military has published a list of Iranian officials it says were killed in airstrikes on February 28.
