Experts predict a significant drop in Ukraine’s export potential
Ukrainian farmers are reporting a sharp increase in costs and risks for exports due to the rise in fuel and fertilizer prices. RBC-Ukraine reports this with reference to a Reuters publication. The PromPolitInform portal informs.
Ukrainian farmer Mykola Maliyenko, who works on fertile lands in the center of the country and supplies products to Europe, has reduced the area under corn by 100 hectares this season.
According to him, this forced decision is related to the increase in fertilizer prices after the events in the Middle East.
The greatest concern is diesel fuel, which is needed to harvest the crop from 1,200 hectares.
Its cost has almost doubled after disruptions in global energy supplies.
Exports under pressure from new risks
Despite the war with Russia, Ukraine retains its status as a major agricultural producer and exports to 150 countries.
At the same time, the geography of supplies has changed: volumes to Asia and the Middle East have decreased, while the role of the European direction has increased.
Analysts indicate that Russia has strengthened its position in world markets, in particular in the wheat segment, using cheaper resources.
Costs are increasing, forecasts are worsening
Malienko estimates that the increase in costs will be at least 10-15%, and in the event of a prolonged conflict – up to 60%.
“Our export potential may fall significantly,” said Malienko. “This year it will decrease by 15-20%, and if the situation persists, it may reach as much as 40%.
The industry remains critically important
The agricultural sector provides more than half of the country’s foreign exchange earnings. After the port blockade, logistics became more expensive, which hit farmers’ profits. Partial stabilization was brought by the opening of the grain corridor in 2023.
However, problems remain: labor shortages, logistics disruptions, and dependence on fuel imports.
The fuel factor as the main challenge
Diesel prices have risen to almost UAH 92 per liter. Farmers are forced to decide whether to buy fuel now or wait.
“I don’t want someone to call me and say: 150 hryvnias when the grain falls from the spikelet, and I have nothing to collect it with,” said Maliyenko.
Experts predict that high prices for fuel and fertilizers will persist for at least several months, which may lead to a reduction in production and crops.
Recall that the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center summarized the weather conditions for the first ten days of March and reported that in some regions of the country winter crops resumed vegetation earlier than the average multi-year terms.
It should be noted that in 2026 the cost of vegetables of the so-called “borscht set” is kept lower than in the previous year, however, prices for greenhouse products remain sensitive to fluctuations in the exchange rate and fuel prices.
