The leadership of the Russian Federation is considering covert coercion options to increase the number of contract soldiers, avoiding official mobilization due to the risks of disrupting the social contract. The Kremlin is planning military operations for the long term, while strikes on the Russian economy and international support for Ukraine remain deterrent factors. This is reported by the portal PromPolitInform, citing the Telegram channel of KOVALENKO.
Russian economic experts and political figures recommend avoiding a mass draft, as indicated by closed regional sociological surveys. Instead, methods of covertly coercing citizens into signing military contracts are being developed.
Social Contract Under Threat Due to Mobilization Plans
An official mobilization announcement could destroy the tacit agreements between the population and the authorities that combat operations are conducted by mercenaries for money far away from ordinary life. At the same time, the leadership of the aggressor state does not plan to curtail hostilities in the near future and is budgeting for the continuation of aggression.
Impact of International Partners and Economic Pressure
Opportunities remain to influence the situation in Moscow through a combination of Ukrainian strikes on economic targets and assistance from Western partners with the participation of the US and China. The Ukrainian side needs to maintain internal unity against the backdrop of russia’s intentions to channel resources into destabilizing the political and information situation within the state.
Illustrative photo: Diego Delso / CC BY-SA 4.0
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