The estimated range for the euro by the end of the year may be 52.5–54 hryvnias
The official exchange rate of the dollar in Ukraine at the end of 2026 is unlikely to exceed the 46 hryvnia mark. This forecast was provided by Serhii Mamedov, Chairman of the Management Board of Globus Bank. This was reported by Minfin citing Serhii Mamedov, according to the portal PromPolitInform.
According to the banker, maintaining a controlled situation in the currency market will depend on security components and the state of energy infrastructure. Provided there is no significant worsening of external factors, the National Bank of Ukraine will continue its policy of “managed flexibility,” smoothing out excessive volatility through currency interventions.
Factors influencing the market
The regulator’s projected intervention volumes in the fourth quarter of this year could range from 10 to 11 billion dollars. Demand dynamics for foreign currency traditionally increase at the end of the year due to higher budget expenditures, seasonal factors, and the conclusion of business contracts.
Serhii Mamedov emphasized that the exact figures for December 31 will depend on a combination of circumstances, including the country’s export capabilities, the volume of foreign financial aid, and public inflation expectations. Given these conditions, the banking system is prepared to compete for hryvnia deposits by raising interest rates on term deposits to 17.5% per annum.
Dynamics of the European currency
The cost of the euro in Ukraine is influenced not only by internal economic indicators but also by global fluctuations in the euro-dollar pair. Due to a wider corridor of uncertainty associated with the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, the indicative exchange rate of the European currency by the end of the year may fluctuate within the range of 52.5–54 hryvnias.
Despite the expected growth, the banker believes the rate dynamics remain controlled, and there is no risk of a sharp spike in the dollar. Gradual changes within the framework of “managed flexibility” are a normal process for current conditions, allowing the currency market to be maintained in a state of equilibrium.
Photo: Minfin
Read also: Exchange Rates for September 29, 2026: Dollar, Euro, Zloty
