In June 2026, external inflows reached a peak of 11.3 billion dollars
The gap between planned expectations and actual international aid inflows is forcing the government to reconsider its fiscal policy approaches. Minister of Finance Sergii Marchenko reported that average monthly budget funding from foreign partners in 2026 amounted to 1.5 billion dollars compared to the expected 4.5 billion dollars. Instead of the planned 50 billion dollars a year, the pace of inflows has slowed noticeably, which the official attributes to the need to fulfill a number of regulatory conditions.
A certain protective barrier at the beginning of the year was created by accumulated reserves: as Sergii Marchenko noted, at the start of 2026, the balances on the single Treasury account and bank deposits stood at UAH 477 billion. Overall, in the first half of the year, the general state budget fund was replenished by approximately UAH 2 trillion, which is 46% more compared to the same period in 2025. At the same time, the dynamics of monthly inflows ranged from 500 million dollars in May to a peak of 11.3 billion dollars in June, reaching UAH 195.9 billion in September, according to the State Treasury Service.
Shadow economy crackdown worth UAH 350 billion
Amid the instability of external partner tranches, parliament is focusing on mobilizing domestic financial resources for the next budget period. MP Danylo Hetmantsev presented a mechanism for raising an additional UAH 400 billion for the 2027 state budget. The lion’s share of this amount — UAH 350 billion — is planned to be secured through combating tax evasion and illegal trade, as well as via additional VAT, excise, and personal income tax revenues.
Another UAH 37.1 billion is proposed to be accumulated by increasing deductions from the part of the National Bank of Ukraine’s profit to a total volume of UAH 85.8 billion. An additional UAH 12.9 billion should come from cutting the administrative expenses of the state apparatus, while funding for the army, SBU, police, and National Guard will be maintained in full, as Danylo Hetmantsev emphasized.
Defense needs and revision of social standards
In the structure of the future domestic resource allocation, priority is given to the security sector. An additional UAH 175 billion is proposed to be channeled into defense needs, which should go toward supporting the military, developing the defense-industrial complex, and modernizing weapons. The social block, according to the MP’s calculations, will require UAH 140 billion, of which UAH 100 billion is earmarked for the Pension Fund to increase payments.
The initiative also provides for a phased increase in basic state indicators starting January 1, 2027: the minimum wage to UAH 12,000, pensions to UAH 6,500, and the subsistence minimum to UAH 7,200. The remaining funds, specifically UAH 30 billion for education and UAH 25 billion for medical guarantees, are proposed to be used to support civilian infrastructure amid the reduction of foreign grants.
Illustrative photo: Dghooo / Public domain
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