To stabilize the population size, it is necessary to provide conditions for the birth of two children in every family
Demographer Oleksandr Hladun predicts a further decline in Ukraine's population due to war and migration, emphasizing the need for effective state policy. Financial support for families and improved social conditions are essential for stabilizing birth rate indicators. This was reported by UNIAN citing Oleksandr Hladun, according to the portal PromPolitInform.
According to the scientist, the key factors determining population dynamics remain fertility, life expectancy, and migration processes. Although Ukraine faces serious demographic challenges, the expert believes that the term “doom” is inappropriate. After the end of hostilities, the rate of population decline may slow down due to an increase in birth rates and a decrease in mortality rates.
Birth rate indicators and social policy
To avoid a decline in population size, there should be about 210–220 children per hundred women, but current figures fluctuate between 90–110 babies. The expert emphasizes that Ukrainian families have a desire to have children, but financial risks and the threat of poverty are significant deterrents. A successful demographic strategy requires long-term state support that would provide for a child until the completion of their education, rather than just in the first years of life.
Economic efficiency and migration risks
The demographic situation is closely linked to the state of the labor market and the level of trust in state institutions. An important task is not only quantitative planning but also the adaptation of the economy to new realities, particularly through automation and the introduction of artificial intelligence. In addition, the return of citizens from abroad will be significantly influenced by the conditions of the end of the war, as the expectation of safety and stability is decisive for internally displaced persons and refugees.
Prospects for the return of citizens
After the active phase of hostilities, the expert predicts counter-migration flows, where some Ukrainians will return home while others may leave to reunite with their families abroad. In Oleksandr Hladun’s opinion, an effective incentive for return will be not so much political rhetoric as the real improvement in the quality of life and citizens’ confidence in the future. The demographic development strategy until 2030, adopted in 2024, requires adequate funding so as not to repeat the failed experience of previous years.
Photo: UNIAN
