The “eOselya” mortgage program will remain a key stimulus for the market, particularly in the primary segment.
Given the current economic conditions and security factors, Ukraine’s real estate market is likely to continue developing along its established trajectory in 2026. Limited supply is expected to ensure that rising demand continues to push prices upward. This was reported by Dengi.ua, citing experts from OLX Real Estate, according to the PromPolitInform portal.
Analysts note that the secondary housing market may face a shortage of supply due both to the destruction of part of the housing stock and to property owners’ reluctance to rush into sales. At the same time, buyer interest is forecast not only to remain stable but to strengthen. This will intensify price pressure, particularly for properties with autonomous heating systems and buildings or residential complexes equipped with backup power sources.
In the primary market, no price declines are expected in 2026. This will be driven by a limited number of new projects, rising construction material costs, and labor shortages. In addition, buyer behavior has changed: due to heightened risks, purchasers are far less willing to invest in properties at the early construction stage and wait for completion, compared to the pre-war period.
A separate driver for the market — especially the primary segment — will continue to be the government-backed “eOselya” affordable mortgage program. Housing vouchers for military personnel and internally displaced persons may also support demand.
Meanwhile, the long-term rental market in 2026 will directly depend on supply levels. If supply contracts, rental rates are expected to continue rising. As before, the highest demand will be for apartments with autonomous heating and backup electricity, located away from strategically important facilities.
Analysts emphasize that in 2026 the importance of housing autonomy will grow further, increasing interest in purchasing and renting private houses. At the same time, the trend of residents relocating from Kyiv and other large cities to suburbs is expected to continue, driven by security considerations and the desire for housing less dependent on centralized infrastructure.
In the commercial real estate segment, large warehouse facilities and logistics hubs are expected to remain the most promising assets due to limited supply. Conversely, demand in the office rental market is projected to decline further, likely leading to lower rental rates.
Overall, experts conclude that in 2026 the development of Ukraine’s residential and commercial real estate markets will largely depend on the security situation and economic conditions, the course of hostilities, the stability of the energy system, and businesses’ ability to adapt to these challenges.
