The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine presented the budget declaration for the next three years, which takes into account two scenarios: depending on when the war ends. The document defines the main financial guidelines, including the exchange rate, inflation rate and social guarantees for citizens. This was reported by MP Olga Vasilevska-Smaglyuk, the PromPolitInform portal reports.
Key indicators and forecasts. Under the “baseline scenario”, which assumes the end of the war, the government predicts inflation in 2027 at 8.9%, and the dollar exchange rate at the end of that year is 48.3 UAH. In general, in the optimistic scenario, a gradual weakening of the hryvnia is expected: the average annual exchange rate will increase from 44.4 UAH/$ in 2026 to 50.7 UAH/$ in 2029.
In the event of the end of hostilities in 2026, the government plans a gradual reduction in the budget deficit: from 18.5% of GDP in 2026 to 5.5% in 2029. It is also expected that defense spending will peak in 2027 (5.05 trillion UAH), after which it will begin to decline. At the same time, the growth of public debt in 2027 is expected to be at the level of 113% of GDP. Ukraine’s need for international financial assistance in 2027 alone will amount to over 2.1 trillion UAH.
Social standards and salaries. The government plans to increase social standards at a pace that is ahead of inflation. Over the course of three years, the minimum wage is projected to grow by almost 29%. It is also planned to maintain payments for the military:
“The additional payment to the salaries of the military – plus 10 thousand UAH for logistics specialists should be continued next year,” – the People’s Deputy quotes Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko.
Tax discussions. Separately, the Verkhovna Rada Committee is considering draft law No. 15262, which provides for an increase in profit tax for commercial banks to 50%. Olga Vasylevska-Smaglyuk spoke out against this initiative, noting: “This is a devastating norm that will disrupt the rhythm of lending.”
