Russia has almost run out of Oreshnik missiles. So how many Oreshniks could remain in Russia? According to experts, the Ukrainian private company Dallas Analytics reported that after the first Oreshnik missile strike on the Dnieper in November 2024, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin gave the order to accelerate the production of four more such missiles. This is reported by renews, the PromPolitInform portal reports.
According to the company, since then, Russia has already used three of the four manufactured missiles in 2026: one was launched over the Lviv region on the night of January 9; two more were used during attacks on the Bila Tserkva district of the Kyiv region; one of the missiles reportedly missed its target and fell in the temporarily occupied territory of Donetsk region on the night of May 24.
Dallas Analytics believes that after these launches, Russia may have only one combat-ready Oreshnik missile from the original contract.
Russia sacrificed quality to meet deadlines
According to the company, a source from the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that the enterprises producing the Oreshnik allegedly deviated from quality control procedures in order to meet the deadlines set by the Kremlin.
Dallas Analytics also obtained Russian procurement documents from March 2025. They indicate that problems with the Soviet GU-503 aviation gyroscope could have negatively affected the missile’s guidance system. Because of this, the missile could allegedly deviate from its intended target by tens of kilometers.
ISW analysts note that despite the reduction in stocks, Russia will likely try to continue producing Oreshniks.
