Wheat futures on the global market have neared a three-year high due to escalating attacks on Black Sea ports and merchant vessels. Amid the threat of disrupted grain exports from Ukraine and russia, global supplies could drop by 86 million tonnes this year.
This was reported by Glavcom citing Financial Times, according to the portal PromPolitInform.
russia and Ukraine account for about 30% of global wheat volume, ranking first and fifth among exporters respectively. The market is reacting to disruptions in export operations, particularly strikes on Ukraine’s largest Danube port and Russian terminals in Novorossiysk.
According to Oxford Economics estimates, due to port disruptions in both countries, global supplies will decrease by 86 million tonnes this year, with 52 million tonnes attributed to Russian exports and 34 million tonnes to Ukrainian exports. Ukraine’s alternative Danube and rail routes will only be able to replace about 17 million tonnes.
The situation is complicated by global climatic factors and military risks to supplies.
Although at the insistence of US Vice President JD Vance, Ukraine agreed to refrain from striking the oil terminal in Novorossiysk, no such commitments were made regarding grain terminals. Additional market pressure comes from widespread droughts, the El Niño climate phenomenon, and fertilizer shortages resulting from the war with Iran.
This raises concerns about a new leap in global food prices, which Oxford Economics forecasts will grow by 11.8% this year and another 4.8% in 2027. The FAS USDA representative in Kyiv also worsened forecasts for Ukrainian wheat and corn exports for the 2026/27 marketing year in an August report due to blocked shipping.
Illustrative photo: Sunliftan / CC BY-SA 4.0
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