The government of the state has revised its fuel export plans abroad for 2026–2027
The government of Russia has lowered its 2026 oil production forecast to 494.2 million tonnes, marking the lowest level since 2009, amid the consequences of the war against Ukraine. At the same time, the Kremlin has revised its crude oil and fuel export plans for the coming years. This was reported by Glavcom citing Reuters, according to the portal PromPolitInform.
The draft government forecast is set to be finalized in late September and will be used during the preparation of the state budget. The document envisages a reduction in oil production estimates for 2026–2029 by 16–20 million tonnes compared to the May version. Under the baseline scenario, crude oil production in Russia this year will decrease by 17.2 million tonnes to 9.88 million barrels per day.
Next year, the figure is expected to recover to 500 million tonnes, yet this remains 16 million tonnes lower than the previous forecast. In 2028–2029, production will continue to grow, but will remain below the 2025 level. Back in May, the agency had projected stable oil production for 2026 with subsequent growth.
Oil and fuel exports
According to the draft forecast, Russia’s crude oil exports this year may reach 244.7 million tonnes compared to 230.8 million tonnes in 2025, which is 7.5 million tonnes higher than the previous forecast. Subsequently, the target will decline to 232.5 million tonnes in 2027 and drop sharply to 216.6 million tonnes in 2028–2029. To overcome domestic market shortages, authorities have introduced a ban on diesel fuel exports and restrictions on foreign sales of gasoline and jet kerosene.
The government expects fuel exports this year to drop by 27.3 million tonnes to 98.5 million tonnes, which is 24.1 million tonnes below previous expectations. Next year, this figure is projected to rise to 113.1 million tonnes, but this is nearly 13 million tonnes lower than the 2025 level. In June, Russia officially acknowledged a decline in oil production volumes for the first time due to unscheduled repairs at oil refineries.
Illustrative photo: Економічна правда
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