The loss of 800 MW of generation over the past year will cause an electricity deficit this winter
The upcoming winter in Ukraine will be difficult due to the loss of over 800 MW of generation over the past year and the threat of new Russian attacks. However, a total collapse of the energy system is unlikely. This was reported by Delo.ua, according to the portal PromPolitInform.
According to the former head of Ukrenergo, Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, the russians are focusing on shelling Ukrainian power plants, district heating systems in large cities, and water supply infrastructure to turn the war in their favor. In response, the Defense Forces are destroying the enemy’s energy infrastructure, including the logistical ports of Novorossiysk, Ust-Luga, and Primorsk, through which about 70% of russian goods traffic passes.
He noted that with long-range and missile weapons, Ukraine is capable of causing significant damage to the energy systems of russian cities. In particular, the Moscow energy hub is comparable in scale to the total capacity of the Ukrainian energy system before the full-scale invasion. To cause a serious failure there, it is enough to hit 20 to 30 main substations and key power plants.
Factors of deficit and the state of industry
Assessing the risks for the Ukrainian energy system during the winter period, the former company head emphasized that consumption volumes depend significantly on weather conditions. The difference in demand between a warm and a very cold winter day can reach 50%, which equals the entire capacity of Ukraine’s nuclear generation.
Reduced electricity consumption due to the shutdown of metallurgical plants and warehouse complexes will not cover the deficit. Cuts in consumption by the steel industry provide an effect of 300–400 MW, and logistics facilities another 50–100 MW. At the same time, attacks on large combined heat and power plants (CHPs) in Kyiv and Kharkiv alone have led to a loss of 800 MW of generation over the past year.
Distributed generation and storage systems
According to Kudrytskyi, quality preparation for the winter peak should have involved building distributed generation several years ago. Preparing the grid immediately before the heating season begins will no longer have a noticeable effect on a national scale.
Industrial energy storage systems are effective primarily from March to October, when they accumulate surpluses from solar power plants during the day and smooth out daily peaks. During the winter period, due to the constant electricity deficit, there is practically no excess energy to charge the batteries.
Supply to the capital and market regulation
The capital of Ukraine remains at high risk, as it consumes about 2 GW, while the announced plans to introduce 200 MW of cogeneration capacity have not yet been fully implemented. Even if they are introduced, the bulk of Kyiv’s power supply will still have to come from the national grid.
The development of private gas-fired generation slowed down in the previous period due to the regulator’s decision to temporarily lower price caps in the wholesale market, which reduced the investment attractiveness of such projects. Full-scale investment is expected after the price caps are lifted and legislative changes regarding the restructuring of NEURC are adopted.
Photo: Facebook/Volodymyr Kudrytskyi
