The rise in demand for dollars is driven by business needs and devaluation expectations
In September, the National Bank of Ukraine set an all-time high for currency interventions, selling 5.519 billion dollars on the interbank market. This figure surpassed previous peaks recorded in December 2024 and June 2026. This was reported by Minfin citing Andrii Shevchyshyn, according to the portal PromPolitInform.
According to financial expert Andriy Shevchyshyn, the significant increase in the regulator’s activity is due to a major imbalance between supply and demand for foreign currency. Daily business purchases of foreign currency on the interbank market at the turn of September and October reached 467.6 million dollars, while supply from sellers remained stable at approximately 250.4 million dollars per day.
Consequently, the average daily deficit on the interbank market grew by nearly 40%, reaching 217.2 million dollars. Experts attribute the increased demand to the need for businesses to replenish stocks of products and raw materials, as well as the need to purchase imported goods amid the destruction of warehouse and logistics infrastructure caused by russian shelling.
Factors of pressure on the currency market
An additional incentive for purchasing dollars was the rise in global energy prices, which forced fuel companies to increase their currency expenditures. In parallel, there is an increased demand for cash currency from the population, where the average daily net deficit amounted to 35.9 million dollars. Citizens increased purchases due to rising devaluation expectations and preparations for the autumn-winter period amidst systemic enemy attacks on the energy sector.
Combined, the average daily currency deficit in both market segments during this period was 253.1 million dollars, the highest figure since the beginning of this year. The National Bank of Ukraine is responding to these challenges with daily sales averaging 262.5 million dollars, continuing a series of interventions exceeding 1 billion dollars per week, which has lasted for 12 consecutive weeks.
Impact of fiscal policy
According to Andriy Shevchyshyn, a significant factor influencing the market is the current policy of cutting government spending. The reduction in the presence of budget funds in the economy objectively lowers import volumes and, consequently, the overall demand for foreign currency. Despite this, the unprecedented volume of currency sales by the regulator remains a necessary step to maintain macroeconomic stability in wartime conditions.
Photo: Minfin
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