Ukraine's currency market will operate under psychological pressure and wartime uncertainty
Between November 16 and 22, the US dollar exchange rate on the market is expected to fluctuate between 45 and 45.7 hryvnias. During this period, the euro will range from 50 to 52 hryvnias, with experts seeing no grounds for a large-scale devaluation. This was reported by RBC-Ukraine (Анастасія Мацепа), according to the portal PromPolitInform.
Taras Lesovyi, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Department at Globus Bank, noted that temporary fluctuations in indicators are likely in the coming days. Such movements should not be interpreted as a signal of a sustained increase in foreign currency prices.
Daily price corrections on the interbank market may fluctuate between 0.05 and 0.15 hryvnias. In commercial financial institutions, these adjustments are projected at 0.1–0.2 hryvnias, while in currency exchange offices, deviations could reach 0.3 hryvnias.
Market influencing factors
Currency dynamics continue to be impacted by the consequences of strikes on infrastructure and general wartime uncertainty. The psychological state of the population creates a risk of panic demand, where even a minor exchange rate increase is perceived by citizens as a threat of deep devaluation.
Taras Lesovyi emphasized that artificial price hikes in exchange offices driven by public expectations do not reflect an actual currency shortage. The National Bank of Ukraine maintains control over the situation through mechanisms of a managed flexible exchange rate.
Spread forecast
The spread between buy and sell rates on the interbank market is expected not to exceed 0.15 hryvnias per dollar. In commercial banks, this gap could reach up to 0.6 hryvnias, and up to one hryvnia in currency exchange offices.
The expert advises against hasty actions during peak volatility, when the spread might artificially widen to 1.5 hryvnias. At this stage, there are no fundamental reasons for exchange rates to move beyond the projected range.
Illustrative photo: Silver Dovelet / CC BY-SA 4.0
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