The share of shadow employment in Russia has reached 41% of the total number of working citizens. According to intelligence reports, the gap between the official number of employed people and staff in company payrolls stands at 30.5 million. This was reported by Ukrinform citing Sluzhba Zovnishnoi Rozvidky Ukrainy, according to the portal PromPolitInform.
According to estimates by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, as of January-May 2026, the number of employed people in Russia totaled 74.6 million, while only 44.1 million were officially employed by organizations. This disparity is driven by businesses attempting to minimize the costs of maintaining payroll staff.
Financial viability of informal employment
Keeping an employee on the payroll costs a Russian employer at least 43% more than the gross salary. This is due to the need to pay personal income taxes, social fund contributions, and injury insurance premiums. At the same time, collaborating with self-employed individuals frees companies from social contributions, as the tax burden in this case is only 6%.
The situation is exacerbated by the development of the platform economy, where marketplaces, taxi services, and delivery platforms prefer civil-law contracts with workers. This model allows businesses to shift financial risks onto employees, depriving them of guarantees such as vacations or sick leave.
Industry risks and impact on the state budget
The highest share of informal employment is observed in the construction, retail, agriculture, and industrial sectors. While previously the labor shortage forced employers to retain staff, the current cooling of the Russian economy has shifted priorities toward rigorous cost optimization.
For the Kremlin, the growth of the shadow sector creates direct budgetary risks due to a narrowing tax base. According to intelligence, government attempts to increase control over the labor market will only lead to a further rise in the cost of official employment and a decline in business activity.
Illustrative photo: Kirill Vinokurov / CC BY-SA 3.0
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