Privatization of PrivatBank, Ukргаzbank, and Sense Bank: Who can become buyers
Ukraine has initiated the privatization of PrivatBank, Ukrgazbank, and Sense Bank. International banking groups could become potential buyers, but their number is limited due to the war, the restructuring of the European market, and problems with banks exiting Russia. This was reported by Minfin, according to the portal PromPolitInform.
Ukraine has decided to launch the privatization of certain state-owned banks — PrivatBank, Ukrgazbank, and Sense Bank. Large international banking groups could become potential buyers, but the circle of such investors is limited due to the war, the restructuring of the European banking market, and problems with individual banks exiting Russia. This was stated by investment banker and co-founder of FinPoint Sergio Budkin on the podcast «Chto s ekonomikoy?».
Who Can Buy Ukrainian State-Owned Banks
According to Budkin, large international banking groups could be potential buyers of Ukrainian state-owned banks. To participate in the transaction, any buyer must pass several approvals, so potential investors will be carefully vetted. In the investment banker’s opinion, this process can be passed by groups capable of justifying the business rationale of their presence in Ukraine and having a specific development plan.
Furthermore, the potential buyer does not necessarily have to be a new player on the Ukrainian market. According to Budkin, it is also a matter of the possibility of additional investment in a bank that is already operating in Ukraine but has a small scale of operations.
Why Potential Buyers Are Few
Budkin noted that currently the number of international banking groups that may be interested in investing in the Ukrainian banking sector is limited. One of the reasons he named is the restructuring of the European banking market: banking groups are strengthening their positions in key markets for themselves while simultaneously withdrawing from countries where they do not see a long-term strategic sense in their presence.
This trend, according to the investment banker, affects potential interest in Ukrainian banks. At the same time, individual banking groups may consider Ukraine as part of their strategic market in Central and Eastern Europe.
The Russian Factor
Budkin called the presence of some international banking groups in Russia a separate obstacle. According to him, almost all European banking groups that had business in Russia at the beginning of the full-scale war want to exit this market. However, some of them still cannot complete their exit due to restrictions imposed by Russia.
«This is a very political, very sensitive issue», he said. In his opinion, without solving the problem of foreign banks exiting Russia, the number of groups that can theoretically pass the necessary approvals to participate in the purchase of Ukrainian banks may remain insignificant. This, in turn, can limit competition between potential buyers and affect the price the state can receive during privatization.
Sberbank: Possible Public Market Entry
Separately, the conversation touched upon Sberbank. Budkin noted that its entry to the public market could potentially be discussed, provided that state control is maintained. At the same time, he emphasized that this is a very long-term perspective. According to him, such a step is possible only in a few years and is definitely not a matter of the near future.
State Influence on the Banking Sector
According to Budkin, at the end of 2025, the state owned 52% of the assets of Ukraine’s banking system — which, in his assessment, is the highest figure in Europe. In conditions of war, the significant presence of the state in the banking system has justification, in particular due to the need to fulfill state tasks and finance the defense sector.
However, under normal conditions, in the investment banker’s opinion, a large state share can slow down the development of the banking system, since private banks usually have greater flexibility in finding opportunities for lending and investment.
What Will Affect the Price of State-Owned Banks
Profit distribution rules could affect the valuation of banks during future privatization. Budkin drew attention to the difference between state-owned and private banks. According to him, since 2022, private banks and banks with foreign capital have no right to distribute dividends, whereas state-owned banks can pay them to the state.
As an example, he cited PrivatBank, which paid 70% of its profit to the state in the form of dividends following the results of the past year. At the same time, out of five state-owned banks, dividends based on the results of 2025, according to Budkin, were paid only by PrivatBank and Sberbank. Ukreximbank, Sense Bank, and Ukrgazbank directed their profits to recapitalization.
In the investment banker’s opinion, if such rules remain, this could lower the valuation of banks during privatization. A potential buyer will take into account that after the purchase there is no opportunity to freely distribute profit.
How Bank Valuation Will Be Determined
When assessing a bank, according to Budkin, its profitability and asset quality are important. Special attention should be paid to loans to defense enterprises. The investment banker noted that sensitive information about such lending cannot be disclosed to a potential buyer. Therefore, before the sale, the corresponding risks will need to be restructured or removed from the bank’s balance sheet.
Budkin named the price-to-capital ratio as another important indicator. For a profitable bank in a country without war, he cited a benchmark of approximately 1.5–1.7 capital. At the same time, the specific valuation can be either lower or significantly higher, depending on asset quality and other characteristics of the bank.
Why It Is Hard to Forecast the Ideal Moment for Sale
Budkin emphasized that it is practically impossible to determine the ideal moment for the privatization of a bank. According to him, the sales process can last seven to eight months from the start of preparation to the signing of the agreement, and after that, time is needed until the actual transfer of ownership rights. During this period, the situation on the market and in Ukraine can change significantly.
Therefore, in the investment banker’s opinion, if the state has already started the privatization process, it is important to be consistent and bring it to completion, rather than trying to forecast all future market changes.
Photo: Minfin
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