Serhiy Fursa forecasts a dollar exchange rate of UAH 46 and advises buying military bonds with a 16% yield
Investment banker Serhiy Fursa forecasts the US dollar exchange rate at 46 hryvnias by the end of 2026 and recommends that Ukrainians keep their savings in domestic government bonds (OVGZ). The expert notes that the stability of the national currency depends on receiving international financial assistance and avoiding currency emission to cover the budget deficit. This was reported by Minfin, according to the portal PromPolitInform.
Serhiy Fursa, an investment banker, explained in a commentary to Minfin the conditions under which the hryvnia can maintain relative stability, and named the optimal tools for capital protection under martial law. According to him, a gradual weakening of the national currency is an expected phenomenon, but the National Bank of Ukraine will try to restrain the pace of devaluation so as not to accelerate inflation.
Foreign exchange rate forecast
According to preliminary estimates by Dragon Capital analysts, the US dollar exchange rate may approach the UAH 46 mark by the end of 2026. However, Fursa noted that this scenario is not guaranteed and depends on a number of macroeconomic factors. The banker emphasized that under wartime conditions, a moderate depreciation of the hryvnia is normal, but the speed of exchange rate changes critically affects the prices of goods and services.
In addition to the hostilities by the russian federation, inflationary pressure is driven by rising prices for oil and diesel fuel. Therefore, the regulator will likely limit the pace of currency weakening, using a stable exchange rate as a tool to curb price growth. A key factor remains the state’s ability to attract external financing: fulfilling assumed obligations will help avoid emission costs.
Military bonds as an alternative to currency
For citizens wishing to preserve their savings, the expert advises paying attention to domestic government military bonds (OVGZ). The yield on these instruments is 16% per annum. Even in the event of a 10% devaluation, the real dollar yield will remain positive at 6%, making military bonds more attractive than holding cash in foreign currency.
An additional advantage of military bonds is the exemption of personal income from taxation. Fursa called this instrument one of the most accessible for a wide range of investors. As an alternative, he considers purchasing agricultural land, although he noted that over the past year, prices for this asset have risen significantly, reducing its profitability in the short term.
Risks of emission and corruption
The banker also focused on the risks associated with delays in international aid due to a lack of political will to fight corruption and develop independent institutions. If external financing proves insufficient, the government may face the need to cover state needs through the printing press, leading to serious devaluation and accelerated inflation, as observed in 2022.
The hryvnia exchange rate is also influenced by the dollar-to-euro ratio: the strengthening of the US currency partially spills over into the hryvnia rate. Over the past month, the national currency has shown a tendency to strengthen against the European currency. All this indicates that future exchange rate dynamics will be determined by the balance between external support and internal discipline.
Photo: Minfin
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