The Belarusian direction is once again attracting heightened attention from the military and experts, however, right now the main thing is not emotions, but a cold assessment of the situation
Recently, State Border Guard Service spokesperson Andrii Demchenko stated that currently in the territory of Belarus, “there is no buildup of forces directly close to the border of Ukraine.” According to him, since 2022 Belarus has kept a small number of its units near the Ukrainian border, which rotate periodically, but their numbers do not change significantly.
However, the problem lies elsewhere. Belarus is being drawn deeper and deeper into the Russian war.
As Demchenko emphasized, “what is happening deep within the country’s territory currently indicates that Russia has begun to pressure Belarus more actively so that it joins the war against Ukraine on a larger scale and with its own forces.”
That is why Ukraine is closely monitoring not only what is happening directly at the border, but also the entire military infrastructure inside Belarus. Because the war has long become not only a battle of armies, but also a battle of logistics, roads, training grounds, and bridgeheads for a potential offensive.
The development of roads in the border areas, the setup of artillery positions, military exercises involving nuclear weapons, and the tightening of security measures in the northern regions of Ukraine are all elements of one big picture.
And this is precisely why the State Border Guard Service does not rule out various scenarios.
“In the future, there may also be provocations along the direction of our border. An invasion cannot be ruled out either,” Demchenko stated.
At the same time, he specifically stressed that Russia currently has no strike groups in Belarus. But the problem is that Moscow can transfer its forces to the territory of Belarus at any moment and use those infrastructure facilities that the Belarusian side is currently actively building.
Russia loves to operate through fear and tension. Their task is to force Ukraine to constantly keep significant forces in the north, disperse resources, and live in a mode of continuous anticipation of a new strike. This is part of the exhausting war that the Kremlin is waging not only with missiles, but also with psychological pressure.
Yet Ukraine is no longer the same as it was in February 2022.
The northern border is fortified. Fortifications are being built. The surveillance system is operational. The Defense Forces have combat experience, and any major troop movements today are practically impossible to conceal.
And while Russia once again tries to keep the region in suspense, the Ukrainian military is doing what they have done all these years — quietly preparing for any scenario.
Because the main rule of this war is simple: it is better to be ready for a threat that does not materialize than to be unprepared when the enemy actually moves forward.
Reference: On May 18, exercises on the combat use of nuclear weapons began in Belarus. Also, earlier President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported on the development of roads to the Ukrainian border and the setup of artillery positions in the Belarusian borderlands. On May 21, the SBU announced enhanced security measures in five northern regions of Ukraine bordering Russia and Belarus.
Author: Andrii Atlantov
Author’s collage
