Analysts forecast a collapse of the real sector due to current tariff policies
Expert Vadym Denysenko warned that foreign aid could account for 75% of Ukraine's state budget by 2027. To avoid an economic collapse, the government must change its approach to supporting natural monopolies and negotiating with international donors. This was reported by Glavcom citing Vadym Denysenko, according to the portal PromPolitInform.
According to Vadym Denysenko, head of the Delovaya Stolitsa analytical center, if the current economic model continues, Ukraine will become critically dependent on foreign financial inflows. By 2027, the share of European subsidies could reach 70–75% of the total state budget.
Export Crisis and Industry
It is worth noting that the government has once again downgraded its macroeconomic forecast against the backdrop of falling industrial exports. Statistics show a critical decline: in the first ten months of 2026, the volume of ferroalloy exports was lower than the figures for a single month in 2021. Meanwhile, the rise in Ukrzaliznytsia tariffs, driven by infrastructure destruction, renders domestic products uncompetitive in global markets, causing the closure of major enterprises such as FerExpo.
Inefficiency of Compensation Mechanisms
The author emphasizes that the state favors short-term PR solutions over systemic business support. Regarding the war risk insurance program run by the Ministry of Economy, the effectiveness remains low: out of 6.8 billion UAH in applications submitted, compensation decisions have been made for less than 60 million UAH.
Financial Stabilization Strategy
Vadym Denysenko proposes initiating a dialogue with international financial institutions to establish a special economic stabilization fund. This initiative aims to freeze tariffs for natural monopolies currently under attack by the Russian Federation, which would help prevent a collapse of the real sector and reduce the need for external budget financing.
Photo: Glavcom
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