Kyiv needs to update its diplomatic strategy and move beyond the realities of 2022
Head of the Business Capital analytical center Vadym Denysenko stated that Europe is returning to the negotiation process regarding the end of the war. According to him, the Kremlin's real goal is to lift sanctions from russia in exchange for security guarantees. This was reported by Glavcom, according to the portal PromPolitInform.
Future agreements are aimed at forcing European countries to lift restrictive measures against russia in exchange for security guarantees and the involvement of American intermediaries in the sale of russian goods. The appearance of European representatives in the negotiation format was predetermined due to Europe’s weakness and the bias of the United States.
Mandate of European participants
European partners do not yet have a clear mandate for the new negotiation format due to internal contradictions. Allies simultaneously seek an end to hostilities due to financial and electoral pressures while fearing further russian aggression. Because of this approach, there is a high threat of fragmentation of the pro-Ukrainian coalition in the coming months.
Position of the Kremlin leadership
russian president vladimir putin demonstrates doublethink, combining the intention to trade with Europe with threats of war and talks about spheres of influence. Such tactics serve as the main deterrent for European states, although it does not stop the split of the coalition, only slowing it down. Kyiv continues to operate using 2022 templates, insufficiently realizing the changes in the modality of negotiations.
A new framework of red lines
European countries have already begun to waver in their support and are no longer able to provide the previous level of financial assistance and complete isolation of the Kremlin. Ukraine needs to jointly form a new framework of red lines with its partners, as existing borders are gradually shifting. The main question is whether Kyiv will retain a voting voice in these processes in five to six months or remain an observer.
Expanding the geopolitical board
Many countries in the world are wary of the trend of formalizing the suzerainty of the stronger over the weaker by right of force. Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and a number of other regional countries are becoming Ukraine’s natural allies in this situation. Such a stance disrupts China’s strategy, requiring Kyiv to expand the chessboard and proceed from the realities of 2026 rather than 2022.
Illustrative photo: President Of Ukraine / Public domain
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