The Russians fail both at the front and in the rear.
A scaled-down parade in Moscow on May 9 showed Moscow’s battlefield failures and its fear of the increasing effectiveness of Ukraine’s long-range strikes. For the first time in three years, the initiative in the war seems to have passed to Kyiv, they point out in The Economist magazine, informs the portal PromPolitInform.
After a harsh winter in which cities and the energy grid were bombarded almost every night with massive Russian drones and missiles, Ukraine is now making a difference. It imposes on Russia more and more spending on almost all indicators,” the journalists write.
The publication pointed to the failure of the Russian spring offensive: in April, the Russians for the first time since August 2024 lost more territory than they could capture. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) listed the factors that contributed to Ukraine’s success: ground counterattacks and medium-range strikes; termination of Russia’s use of Starlink terminals; the Kremlin’s paranoid restriction of the Telegram messenger.
“In general, it looks like a turning point in the war. If the Russians fail to show anything for their efforts, I wouldn’t be surprised if things start to collapse in some places,” says Lawrence Friedman, professor emeritus of military studies at King’s College London.
Now Russian losses exceed the pace of recruitment of new soldiers. At the same time, until last year, the ratio of killed and wounded invaders could be 1: 2-1: 3. This is bad, but roughly corresponds to past conflicts. But in March, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia was losing nearly two dead for every wounded person. This ratio increases, probably due to FPV drones.
While expanding and oversaturated drones “Kilzona” at the front. This has a greater impact on Russian operations than on Ukrainian ones, because the Russians are trying to move forward. Ukrainians have similar problems with the Russians in the “kilzone,” but they appreciate the lives of their soldiers much more, so they often use robotic ground complexes, journalists write.
In addition, Russia is suffering increasing losses from Ukrainian medium-range drones (with a range of 50 to 300 km). Their targets include ammunition depots, drone depots, command and control posts, launchers of anti-aircraft missile systems, radars and deployment points where armored vehicles and troops are concentrated.
This is accompanied by an increase in the scale, range and intensity of Ukraine’s long-range strikes. Last month, Kyiv surpassed Moscow for the first time in the number of attacks by long-range drones. Now 70% of the population of Russia falls into the range of Ukrainian drones. The Russians cannot protect even valuable objects because of the size of the country and Ukraine’s systematic campaign to degrade the state of Russian air defense systems.
“They cannot defend themselves against drone attacks with zone defence. And they don’t have point defense in many places where they need it,” says Seth Jones, senior military analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
In this regard, journalists point to the main question that now arises: are Russia’s various failures indicators that Vladimir Putin’s capabilities in Ukraine are declining? Professor Lawrence believes that much depends on the next few months, and in particular on whether Russia can counteract Ukraine’s advancement in the field of drones. A separate factor is the likelihood of Moscow preparing for a summer offensive.
“It is difficult to imagine how the situation can improve for Russia. If you make reports for Putin, then the picture is rather gloomy,” says analyst Jones.
Photo – from open sources
