The scale of falsifications and the gap between real figures will indicate public sentiment
The upcoming Russian State Duma elections will be falsified, yet even official data could reflect the level of public dissatisfaction with the war and the leadership's policies. According to The Sunday Times commentator Mark Galeotti, the gap between actual voting and announced figures will serve as an indicator of real support for the Kremlin. This is reported by the portal PromPolitInform, citing the Telegram channel of Crimean Wind, based on data from The Sunday Times.
United Russia has all but secured a majority in the future legislature, as the genuine anti-war opposition has effectively been barred from the electoral process. However, researchers point out that the scale of vote manipulation may be extremely high, as seen during the 2024 presidential election, where at least 22 million votes out of a total of 75 million were estimated to be falsified.
Shifting sentiments in Russian regions
Analysts are focusing on regional dynamics, as the government’s traditional electoral base in provincial cities has been under pressure from the war. Unlike in Moscow or Saint Petersburg, where opposition sentiments were recorded earlier, it is now in remote regions that the consequences of mobilization and economic hardship are most felt, creating risks for Putin’s approval rating in areas where he previously felt most secure.
The factor of ending hostilities
The elections will also serve as a test of the public’s attitude toward the prolonged conflict. Despite Kremlin efforts to integrate war veterans into the Duma, polls suggest that over 60% of Russians support the start of peace negotiations, while the conviction is growing within Putin’s inner circle that the war must be ended by 2027. The election results could become a decisive factor determining the regime’s next steps: opting for a diplomatic conclusion to the conflict or pursuing further militarization of the economy and a new wave of mobilization.
Illustrative photo: Юрий Д.К. / CC BY 4.0
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