Fuel prices in Ukraine will increase from 1 January 2027 due to excise tax hike
Ukrainian experts have indicated that fuel prices may rise from 1 January 2027 due to a planned increase in excise tax under the draft state budget for 2027. The final prices will also depend on the euro exchange rate, global oil prices, and traders’ actions. This was reported by Glavcom, according to the portal PromPolitInform.
The draft state budget for 2027 includes an increase in excise tax rates on fuel. For petrol, the rate is set to rise from 300.8 to 329.9 euros per 1,000 litres, and for diesel—from 253.8 to 291.9 euros.
Impact of the tax on price
According to calculations by Serhiy Sapiehin, director of the Scientific and Technical Centre ‘Psycheia’, at the current euro exchange rate, the excise increase alone will add approximately UAH 1.49 per litre of petrol and UAH 1.95 per litre of diesel. Since VAT is also applied to this amount, taxes could overall increase prices by about UAH 1.79/l for petrol and UAH 2.34/l for diesel.
However, this does not mean an automatic rise in fuel prices at filling stations by exactly those amounts. The final cost of fuel will also be influenced by the euro exchange rate, global market quotes, and fuel inventories held by operators at the time the new rates take effect.
Delayed impact
Experts note that in late 2026, operators may import additional fuel volumes under the old excise rates. As a result, the impact of the tax increase on retail prices may be partially postponed—particularly through January or even February.
Expert price forecasts for 2027
Dmytro Lioushkin, CEO of Prime Group, forecasts that diesel could cost UAH 115–120 per litre in February 2027. In a worst-case scenario, prices could rise to UAH 140–145/l. For petrol, the expert cited a benchmark of UAH 105–110/l, and up to UAH 130/l under adverse conditions.
Energy expert Hennadii Riabtsov also expects further fuel price increases after the excise hike. However, he does not specify the exact amount that may be added per litre. In his view, the final price depends not only on the tax burden but also on the pricing policies of traders themselves.
Previously, ‘Glavcom’ reported that diesel had already exceeded UAH 100 per litre at some Ukrainian filling stations, with the most expensive diesel reaching UAH 103/l. Experts attribute the current price surge to rising fuel costs in Europe, the hryvnia exchange rate, and the specifics of price formation by Ukrainian operators.
Photo: Glavcom
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