State budget losses from unpaid taxes on counterfeit products reach UAH 36.4 billion annually
In July 2026, the share of illegal tobacco products in Ukraine rose to 21.6%, the highest level in the last two years. The shadow market causes annual state budget losses exceeding UAH 36 billion. This was reported by Economichna Pravda citing Kantar Ukraine, according to the portal PromPolitInform.
According to the monitoring data, the share of illegal products has significantly increased compared to the 19.8% recorded in April and 17.6% in February. The main driver of this trend was an increase in tobacco products labeled Duty Free or intended for export, but illegally sold within the country, which reached a 10.9% share.
Dynamics of the counterfeit segment
At the same time, analysts noted a decline in the volume of counterfeit goods, specifically those with fake excise stamps, from 11.2% down to 9.1%. Despite this, total losses to the state treasury from unpaid taxes are currently estimated at a record UAH 36.4 billion.
In the structure of counterfeit goods, 37% consists of cigarettes from local manufacturers with fake excise stamps. Researchers identify Marshall Finest Tobacco (United Tobacco) / VK Tobacco FZE as the primary producer of such items, based on packaging labels.
Geography of illegal sales
In the segment of goods labeled Duty Free, the largest manufacturers mentioned on the packs were the Vynnykivska Tobacco Factory with a 57% share and Marshall Finest Tobacco with 41%. The most common brands in this category remain Compliment, Marshall, Manchester, Urta, Lifa, and Brut.
The geographic distribution of illegal trade remains stable, with 68% of the total volume concentrated in seven regions. The highest rates were recorded in the Dnipropetrovsk region (18%), Kharkiv region (12%), Odesa region (11%), as well as in Kyiv and the Kyiv region (8%).
Kiosks and retail shops remain the primary distribution channels, accounting for approximately 66% of illegal tobacco product sales. It is worth noting that the significant prevalence of illegal vapes, which are estimated to be only 4% legal, presents an additional challenge for market oversight.
Photo: Economichna Pravda
