The total negative impact on the country's trade balance will reach $6.5 billion
Due to the cessation of metal production operations caused by Russian attacks, Ukraine could lose $5 billion in export revenue in 2026–2027. The country will also have to spend an additional $1.5 billion on steel imports. This was reported by Glavcom citing GMK Center, according to the portal PromPolitInform.
Analysts predict that if security conditions do not improve, a significant portion of the plants may cease operations entirely. In such a case, steel production by the end of this year could be limited to 4.3 million tonnes, representing a 39% decline compared to the previous year. A worst-case scenario for 2027 forecasts a complete halt of steel production in the country.
Consequences for the mining sector
The crisis in metallurgy will negatively affect the performance of mining companies. Iron ore production is expected to drop by 37% in 2026 and by another 55% in 2027 due to limitations in maritime logistics and lower domestic demand. Export opportunities from September 2026 onwards will be largely limited to the European market, with volumes estimated at approximately 1 million tonnes per month.
Foreign currency revenue deficit
Losses in export revenue from the sale of pig iron and finished steel are estimated at $2.5 billion annually for both 2026 and 2027. In addition to direct revenue losses, the need to import steel products from abroad will arise. This will lead to additional costs reaching $1.5 billion in 2027 compared to 2025 levels.
Risks for recovery
The prolonged idleness of the plants makes their restart more difficult and expensive. The lack of domestic steel production will complicate national recovery programs, as infrastructure projects will become dependent on imported materials. Previously, steel companies were a key source of budget revenue, contributing around 200 billion UAH in taxes over the past five years.
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