Director of the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Ihor Semyvolos analysed the stability of the political systems of Ukraine and the russian federation. According to the expert, the accumulation of management errors in russia due to distorted information from the field increases the probability of a systemic collapse of the regime.
This was reported by Glavcom, according to the portal PromPolitInform.
An analysis of political survival in autocracies points to the danger of relying on a narrow circle of a ‘winning coalition’ that supports the leader. In such a system, inherent to Putin’s regime, critical information distortion occurs as subordinates conceal the reality of the situation in an attempt to meet the leadership’s expectations.
For Ukraine, where the ruling coalition is significantly broader and depends on public support and results at the front, the main threat is sensitivity to failures in the short term. However, the long-term stability of our system is higher due to the ability to correct course through public pressure, elections, and personnel changes, which is impossible in a rigid autocracy.
The accumulation of errors creates risks for the regime
The russian authorities are facing a shrinking resource base due to sanctions and military spending, which makes it difficult to maintain the loyalty of elites through private benefits. At the same time, the lack of an institutional mechanism for the transfer of power creates risks of instability in the future.
An effective strategy for forcing russia to peace involves systemic strikes on oil refineries, which simultaneously hit the budget and military logistics, as well as attacks on marketplace warehouses. These actions directly affect the civilian population, demonstrating the army’s priority over domestic consumption needs.
Loss of control over public sentiment
The Kremlin’s uncertainty regarding actual public loyalty is confirmed by the hasty cancellation of the registration of opposition political forces in elections. Such decisions indicate that the centre lacks objective information about citizens’ sentiments due to the systematic distortion of reports at all levels of management.
The duration of the war only accelerates the degradation of the decision-making apparatus, making it slow and overly cautious. The probability of a major systemic collapse increases when accumulated minor management miscalculations coincide with economic or military crises, exhausting the regime’s capacity to suppress protest sentiments.
Illustrative photo: Prime Minister's Office / GODL-India
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