The National Bank is preparing a decision on the discount rate
Between October 26 and November 1, the interbank US dollar exchange rate will range from 44.85 to 45.25 UAH/USD, while the euro will trade at 50-51 UAH/EUR. On the cash market, the dollar is expected at 44.8-45.5 UAH, and the euro at 50-52 UAH. This was reported by RBC-Ukraine (Ірина Гамерська) citing Taras Lesovyi, according to the portal PromPolitInform.
Ukraine’s currency market will maintain stability thanks to the policy of the National Bank of Ukraine, which compensates for supply and demand imbalances. At the beginning of October, the regulator’s international reserves stood at 47.1 billion dollars, covering future imports for approximately 4 months.
Subject to proper international financing, reserves could potentially approach 70 billion dollars by the end of the year. Sufficient reserves and prompt interventions by the National Bank of Ukraine remain the main safeguards against sudden fluctuations.
Foreign trade deficit and inflation
The foreign trade gap and rising prices remain the main factors putting pressure on the financial system. Over 9 months, goods imports to Ukraine exceeded 75.1 billion dollars, while exports totaled nearly 29.6 billion dollars, creating a trade deficit of about 45.5 billion dollars.
High prices for oil products and business expenses for energy supply during massive attacks create additional pressure. In September, inflation reached 10%, and October price growth is estimated at 1.7-2%.
Discount rate and the situation with the European currency
The National Bank of Ukraine’s meeting on the discount rate on October 29 will be crucial for the market. Experts do not rule out that the rate will remain at 16%, though a hike to 16.5% is possible.
The depreciation of the euro is driven by global factors, including the strengthening of the US dollar and economic problems in the eurozone, which alter the EUR/USD ratio. Therefore, the euro may decline even if the dollar remains stable.
Photo: RBC-Ukraine
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