Demand for foreign currency will exceed supply due to energy imports
Ukraine's foreign exchange market is entering a period of elevated pressure as demand consistently outpaces supply amid seasonal fuel and energy imports. During the week of October 12-18, the interbank US dollar rate is projected to stay within 44.7-44.7 hryvnias. This was reported by RBC-Ukraine (Ірина Гамерська), according to the portal PromPolitInform.
The autumn period traditionally brings higher demand for foreign currency, which currently exceeds natural supply by roughly 15-20 percent due to energy importer needs. According to Taras Lesovyi, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activity Department at Globus Bank, the key feature of this week will be the National Bank’s proactive stance to contain imbalances.
Regulator interventions and support volumes
To balance the interbank market, the National Bank will spend between 1 billion and 1.2 billion dollars weekly to cover the currency deficit. Thanks to this mechanism, sharp fluctuations remain unlikely, although the financial system’s reliance on the regulator’s interventions continues to grow.
Exchange rate corridors in interbank and cash markets
On the interbank market, the US currency is expected within the range of 44.7-45.3 hryvnias per dollar, while the cash segment will show figures from 44.8 to 45.4 hryvnias. For the European currency, corridors of 50-51.5 hryvnias on the interbank and 50-52 hryvnias in cash exchange offices are projected.
Public sentiment and economic factors
The interbank and cash segments will remain as close as possible, indicating a lack of systemic panic among citizens, though the news background and rising prices create additional pressure. Presently, the regulator’s available reserves are sufficient to maintain the stability of the current currency model.
Illustrative photo: Silver Dovelet / CC BY-SA 4.0
Read also: Ukrainian currency market to maintain equilibrium in early October
