The Business Barometer index dropped to -16.4 points in October
In October 2026, the general Business Barometer index in Ukraine decreased to -16.4 points, updating the minimum for this year. Survey participants named international partners' grants as the preferred source for filling the war damage compensation fund, while the idea of raising VAT was supported by only a minor share of entrepreneurs. This is reported by the portal PromPolitInform, citing information from the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
Negative expectations are observed across all four key economic sectors, demonstrating moderate multidirectional dynamics. The most challenging situation is recorded in the manufacturing sector, where the respective indicator stands at -20.3 points. Enterprises in the services sector show slightly more restrained pessimism with an indicator of -13.5 points, alongside trade at -14.0 points. The construction sector demonstrates the best results among all industries with -4.1 points.
Assessments by enterprise size
The deterioration of sentiment has affected businesses regardless of company scale. Specifically, micro-enterprises demonstrate an indicator of -16.5 points, small businesses stand at -20.1 points, and medium-sized ones at -15.3 points. Large business representatives are the least pessimistic, with an indicator of -7.2 points. Meanwhile, expectations of exporting enterprises stabilized slightly higher than the overall business environment average at -14.4 points.
Sources of war damage compensation
During the survey, entrepreneurs outlined their vision for filling the special war damage compensation fund. An absolute majority of respondents, namely 47%, consider grant support from international partners to be the primary source. About 24% of those surveyed spoke in favor of redistributing existing state budget funds. Another 18% of market participants see contributions from participating companies in the risk compensation system as the source.
Attitudes toward tax changes and loans
The idea of attracting additional resources through increasing the value-added tax rate from 20% to 21% is supported by only 7% of surveyed Ukrainian business representatives. The least popular option among entrepreneurs turned out to be using credit funds from international financial organizations, supported by merely 4% of respondents.
Photo: Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry
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