The Ukrainian economy under martial law is showing an amazing mix of systemic risks and forced adaptation. On one hand, the relevant committee of the Verkhovna Rada has approved draft laws abolishing VAT exemptions for commercial international shipments to level the playing field for business and raise money for the defense budget. On the other hand, the private sector is forced to rapidly increase payments to employees: due to an acute shortage of personnel, the average salary for job vacancies has reached 30,000 UAH. Comparing these processes sheds light on a profound transformation, in which the fiscal burden is growing simultaneously with the increase in business labor costs.
In parallel with the attempt to optimize the tax system, a significant jump in income has been recorded in labor and technology sectors. According to Work.ua analytics, the talent shortage caused by mobilization and the war has pushed the annual compensation for certain specialists up by 33–100%. For example, roofers, construction engineers, and metal structure installers have reached an average income level of 50,000 UAH, while payments to creative professionals have doubled to 60,000 UAH. The top of the vacancy ranking is held by art directors with 67,500 UAH, as well as masons and mountaineers, whose income reaches 65,000 UAH. Overall, compared to August of last year, the average salary in the country has risen by 20%.
However, amid rising business labor costs, the state is preparing to extract more resources from the consumer market. As noted by the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, the abolition of exemptions for international parcels, provided for by draft laws No. 15112-D and No. 15460, is expected to provide an additional 10 billion UAH annually to fund the security and defense sector. The mechanism involves introducing a 20% VAT on all goods from marketplaces, starting from the first euro of their value, with the tax automatically included in the order price. Although non-commercial shipments between citizens worth up to 45 euros and personal items in luggage up to 150 euros will remain unchanged, the launch of this system on January 1, 2027, will certainly affect the final bill for buyers.
In the end, a characteristic economic paradox arises: the real sector is forced to overpay for labor to maintain production processes, while regulators seek sources to fill the treasury through e-commerce taxation. The growth of nominal wages in construction or the furniture industry actually reflects not so much the prosperity of business, but a critical shortage of specialists whose income will be given to the state through new fiscal instruments. The stabilization of the average salary at 30,000 UAH indicates market flexibility, yet the constant increase in tax pressure leaves open the question of how long employers will be able to maintain such a dynamic of fees.
Illustrative photo: Fons Heijnsbroek / CC0
