Over 50 percent of Russian oil refining capacity has been disabled
The Russian Federation is currently unable to meet promised diesel export volumes due to damage sustained by its oil refineries. In September, exports reached only 0.1 million barrels against a requirement of 2.2 million barrels. This is reported by the portal PromPolitInform, citing the Telegram channel of Crimean Wind.
At present, the Russian oil refining industry has suffered damage that has disabled more than half of its total capacity. A return to normal operations is only possible if further attacks on refinery infrastructure are avoided.
Fuel product deficit
Current Russian export data shows a significant lag behind stated plans. In September, the Russian Federation managed to export only 0.1 million barrels of fuel, despite a target figure of 2.2 million barrels.
The lack of physical capability to increase production casts doubt on Russia’s ability to fulfill its commitments. Even in the event of a theoretical increase in extraction and refining, this would cover no more than 10–20% of last year’s volumes.
International and security risks
One of the key challenges remains diplomatic pressure aimed at stopping strikes on Russian industrial infrastructure. Previous attempts to exert such influence have not resulted in a change to Ukraine’s military strategy.
There is also a risk of setting a false precedent for certain European countries regarding the possibility of doing business with Russia before the end of hostilities. However, against the backdrop of nuclear blackmail and Russian sabotage activities within the EU, such a scenario appears unlikely.
Illustrative photo: kishjar? from Moscow, Russia / CC BY 2.0
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